In this Placer Bytes, we dive into Macy’s recovery potential and the true ceiling for Floor & Decor.
Macy’s Rebound Brighter Than Expected
Admittedly, we have always taken a more bullish approach to Macy’s. The willingness to try new concepts and strategically deploy rightsizing efforts are elements that deserve recognition. But in light of the recent announcement of an expansion of Backstage “store-within-a-store” efforts, we felt it necessary to dive in once again.
Looking at Macy’s visits overall shows a clear recovery trend. Analyzing weekly visits compared to the equivalent weeks in 2019 (massive year-over-year growth only shows the depths of the closures as opposed to an actual recovery) demonstrates an obvious upward trend. Visits the week beginning April 5th were down just 22.2%, the best result since the start of the year. And attempts to tap into the value of off-price make sense not just as a standalone effort, but as part of a wider and more strategic approach to leverage different assets to create a tide that lifts all Macy’s boats.
Considering the continued weight and reach of traditional Macy’s locations, the push to enhance this channel with an off-price element appears a winning approach.
Floor & Decor on Pace for Even More in 2021?
Floor & Decor has been one of the clear and obvious retail winners over the last year, but the coming year could potentially be even better. Looking at weekly visits compared to the equivalent weeks in 2019 shows consistent and ongoing growth. Impressively, even though traffic has been up consistently throughout recent months, with the wider retail reopening visits were up 41.8% the week of April 5th compared to the equivalent week in 2019.
And this isn’t the only indication that more upside might be on the horizon. While visits have been up, looking at monthly visits month over month shows that they are trending upwards into a potentially significant Q2 period. After traffic saw consistent growth throughout the spring and early summer, visits took a step back in the winter as COVID surged throughout the country. Yet, since that point visits have been on the rise again month-over-month with February only seeing a 9% decline in January even with fewer overall days and severe weather hitting key states hard. With March showing a 26.5% increase over February and early April maintaining that trend of growth, it is hard to see a spring revival season that normally benefits the home improvement and home goods sectors not driving even more value for Floor & Decor.
Is Macy’s poised to surprise? Can Floor & Decor continue to surpass expectations? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
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