With summer and back-to-school shopping in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with a major player on the retail scene – warehouse favorite Costco. How has the chain been faring this year, and what can Costco’s visitation patterns tell us about what lies ahead for it during the all-important fourth quarter of the year?
We dove into the data to find out.
Costco Wraps Up Summer With a Bang
Costco’s wholesale club model seems like it was tailor made for the 2024 consumer. Though prices aren’t rising as rapidly as they did last year, consumers remain eager to cut costs, embracing retailers that allow them to load up on essentials while indulging in affordable splurges that don’t break the bank. And Costco, which provides customers with steep discounts on everything from bulk cereals to patio furniture, is reaping the benefits.
Since January 2024, Costco has enjoyed consistently positive year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth, outpacing the wider Superstore and Wholesale Club category every month of 2024 so far. Even in January, when retail visits nationwide were severely dampened by unusually cold and stormy weather, Costco saw YoY visits increase by 5.2% – a remarkable accomplishment.
Mission-Driven Treasure Hunting
Why is Costco resonating so strongly with consumers this year? One factor may be the unique blend of mission-driven shopping and treasure hunting offered by the membership club. Costco is all about bulk buying – and when people head out to the wholesaler, they expect to come back with a massive haul of canned goods and pantry staples. But with oft-changing inventory and ubiquitous free samples, Costco also offers a fun shopping experience that encourages customers to try new items and make unexpected purchases as they cruise the aisles.
So it may come as no surprise that people spend much longer browsing the aisles at Costco than they do at other superstores and wholesale clubs. And while competitors like Target, Walmart, and BJ’s Wholesale have seen slight drops in their average dwell times over the past three years, Costco’s average dwell time has remained considerably longer – and remarkably steady.
Post-Labor Day Grand Slam
Costco also drives visits by leaning into special calendar days. Unlike some other retailers, Costco closes its doors on most major holidays, including Memorial Day and Labor Day. But the chain still offers major discounts on the days leading up to and following these special days, driving heightened interest – and foot traffic.
Comparing visits on Tuesday, September 3rd – the day after Labor Day – to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average highlights the power of holiday sales, as well as pent-up demand following the store’s closure, to drive traffic to Costco. September 3rd was Costco’s second-busiest Tuesday of the year so far (up 23.8% compared to a YTD Tuesday average) – outpaced only by the pre-Independence Day July 2nd frenzy. May 28th, the day after Memorial Day, was also unusually busy at Costco, as customers rushed to take advantage of Memorial Day markdowns that lasted well into the following week.
In another sign of Costco’s robust positioning ahead of the all-important Black Friday and Christmas shopping season, visits to Costco on the Tuesday after Labor Day this year (Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024) were 6.1% higher this year than in 2023 (Tuesday, September 5th, 2023).
Looking Ahead
Costco’s visitation patterns showcase a brand that is positively thriving in 2024. And though it may be too soon to assess the impact of the membership chain’s recent fee hike, the warehouse chain appears poised to enjoy a robust November and December holiday season.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
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