Moderate Visit Increases
Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
End of July Brings Back-To-School Shopping Momentum
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
Outlet Malls are Fourth of July Hotspots
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Looking Ahead
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
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