Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In
Article

Big Lots’ Big Rightsizing Move in Four Data Points

By 
Lila Margalit
August 28, 2024
Big Lots’ Big Rightsizing Move in Four Data Points
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
Key Takeaways
  • Big Lots locations slated for closure saw a major visit boost in July 2024, as shoppers descended on the shuttering stores to take advantage of markdowns.
  • Big Lots is closing locations that cater to more affluent audiences – perhaps indicating a move to lean into the chain’s core, price-conscious audience.   
  • In California, where a majority of Big Lots stores are set to close, Walmart, Target, and Costco appear poised to reap the benefits.  

Big Lots – the big-box discount store offering everything from snacks to higher-ticket items like furniture and mattresses – recently announced a major rightsizing initiative. Against the backdrop of declining sales, the company disclosed its intention to shutter up to 315 stores in coming months. 

We dove into the data to explore some of the factors that may be impacting Big Lots’ store closure decisions – and to see which chains stand to benefit the most from Big Lots’ big move. 

Shoppers Heed the (Closeout) Call

Store closures mean major markdowns – and the some 280 Big Lots locations already slated to close are drawing crowds with big sales. Analyzing monthly visit fluctuations at Big Lots shows that the shuttering locations experienced an impressive 19.2% month-over-month (MoM) visit spike in July 2024, even as the chain as a whole saw just a 1.9% uptick. Customers, it seems, are flocking to the stores on the chopping block to snag high-ticket items at even steeper discounts. 

Leaning Into Core Audiences

Rightsizing is all about fleet optimization – trimming underperforming locations and retaining those stores best equipped to meet the needs of a chain’s evolving customer base. And identifying common denominators among stores slated for closure can shed light on the considerations informing a retailer’s rightsizing strategy. 

Analyzing the median household incomes (HHIs) of Big Lots’ closing locations' captured markets shows that the retailer is shuttering stores that serve more affluent consumers than the chain as a whole. Nationwide, for example, Big Lots drew visitors from areas with a median HHI of $65.5K in H1 2024. But the Big Lots slated for closure drew shoppers from areas with a median HHI of $73.5K. This pattern repeated itself across major markets where Big Lots is reducing its footprint – including Ohio, Florida, Washington, California, and Arizona. 

Big Lots has noted a revitalization strategy focused on value and even more extreme bargain offerings. And the decision to shutter stores in more affluent areas may reflect a move by the retailer to lean into its core audience of price-conscious shoppers – though higher HHI customers can still benefit from the chain’s value offerings. 

Who Stands to Benefit?

As Big Lots reduces its fleet, shoppers will naturally seek out alternatives. But which chains are best poised to reap the benefits? Cross-shopping data shows, unsurprisingly, that the vast majority of Big Lots visitors also frequent superstores – especially Walmart. In Q2 2024, a whopping 92.3% of Big Lots visitors nationwide stopped by a Walmart – compared to 52.7% for Target and just 20.8% for Costco. 

But shopping behaviors vary significantly between regions. And zooming in on California,  where Big Lots plans to close a majority of its 109 locations, paints a different picture. Golden State Big Lots shoppers, to be sure, also visit Walmart in high numbers (74.6% in Q2 2024). But they are much more likely than nationwide visitors to the chain to frequent Target and Costco. Given Big Lots’ significant fleet reduction in California, these two chains appear well-positioned to acquire some of this new regional business. 

Timing is Everything

And drilling down even deeper into the habits of California shoppers at Big Lots, Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that of the three retail giants, Costco may be especially well-positioned to benefit from Big Lots’ Golden State closures.

Like Big Lots, Costco draws a high share of visits during the mornings and afternoons – with just over 50.0% of 10:00 AM - 8:00 PM visits taking place between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM. As Big Lots’ California footprint contracts, some of these mid-day shoppers may hop over to Costco, which is also bustling during these hours. 

Rightsizing Opportunities

Rightsizing creates opportunities – both for chains taking proactive steps to optimize their fleets, and for competitors seeking to pick up extra business. How will Big Lots’ big rightsizing move continue to play out in the months ahead?

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail  analyses to find out. 

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
Stay Anchored: Subscribe to Insider & Unlock more  Insights
Subscribe
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get 3 brand & industry breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter
Text Link
Big Lots
Text Link
Rightsizing
Text Link
Costco
Text Link
Walmart
Text Link
Target
What Happened to Family Dollar? 
The Impending Transformation of Bev-Alc Retail
CVS and Walgreens in 2025
Target’s Bet on Babies 
The Changing Apparel Landscape in 2025
Trader Joe’s and Aldi’s Continued Success
Retailers Betting on High Income Households
Brooks Brothers Rightsizing Success
The Rise of Smaller-Format Home Improvement Retailers: How Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight Are Outpacing Big-Box Chains
Walmart’s Mall Purchase: Towards a More Diversified Portfolio 
Placer.ai Named One of America’s Best Startup Employers 2025 by Forbes
Darden Weathers the Storm
Diving Into Breakfast Chains: What “Eggs”actly is Going On With Eggs Right Now? 
Placer 100 Index, February 2025 Recap 
Why Chipotle’s 2025 Outlook Looks Conservative
Sportswear in the New Year
Placer.ai February 2025 Office Index: Is The Recovery Stalling? 
Discount and Dollar Stores in a Strong Position to Start 2025
Placer.ai Mall Index: February 2025
Allbirds: Flying Towards New Opportunities
Beauty Retail: Changes, and Challenges Ahead
Who Attends the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500?
The $1B Question: Why Dave’s Hot Chicken Is a QSR Powerhouse
Kroger’s Grocery Dominance in 2025
Walmart Goes to the Mall: Insights From the Monroeville Acquisition
Gap Inc. in 2025 – Recapping 2024 and Uncovering Banana Republic’s Athleisure Opportunity 
Department Stores Providing Value in Today’s Retail Landscape
Dine Brands Maintains Their Broad Appeal
Best Buy: Fully Charged for 2025
Shopping Centers Provide Havens for Residents Affected by the LA Fires
National Retail Chains Utilize Stores to Support LA Fire Relief Efforts
Dutch Bros. & Sprouts: Beverage-Led Success
Off-Price Apparel: Off to a Strong Start in 2025
Visitation Trends and Shopping Behaviors at Walmart & Target 
Restaurant Success in 2025: Experience, Convenience, and Familiarity
Home Improvement Segment Shows Stability
Fitness Starts Strong in 2025
The Meat of the Matter: Bloomin’ Brands in 2024
The Beat of the Bowl: Visitation Patterns for CAVA and sweetgreen
Women's Sports on a Roll: Packed Stadiums, The Sports Bra Bar & Restaurant, and Impacting CRE
Year of the Dragon, Luckiest Animal in the Zodiac: Will that Luck Hold for Asian-Themed CRE?
Washington DC: How the Population in Our Nation's Capital has Evolved Following the Pandemic
What First Half 2024 Visit Trends Tell Us About What to Expect in the Second Half
What Does Walmart’s Results Mean for Other Discretionary Retailers?
Warehouse Clubs: Younger Visitors Support Growth
Wayfair: Early Impressions from Wayfair's New Wilmette Store
We're All Mad for March Madness: NCAA Women's Basketball is Breaking All Sorts of Records
Warehouse Clubs: Finding the Perfect Timing
Ulta: A Thing of Beauty
The Sweet Smell of Success: How CPG Brands are Bringing Their Brands to Life with Experiential Stores
Urban Outfitters: High Income, Specialty Fleets Still Thriving
The Silver Lining to Mall Anchor Department Store Closures
Ulta Beauty: Store Visits and Target Partnership Driving Category Market Share
The Secret to Trader Joe's Success in 2023
Tractor Supply: Visitation Share Gains Continue Despite Weather-Related Disruptions
Takeaways from the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit
The Lure of Waikiki and Beyond: The Feel of Fifth Avenue on Oahu?
Target: Circle Week Shows Signs of Success
Suiting Up in Boston: Newbury Street Suitsupply Store Showing Signs of Strength
Takeaways from Shoptalk Fall
Stew Leonard’s: Specialty Grocery Still a Shining Example
Small Towns, Deepening Pockets: How Migration is Changing the Face of Boise
Studs: Reinvigorating the Accessories Category
South Asian Influence on Sports, Groceries, and Malls
Starbucks: Silver Linings After a Difficult Quarter
Shopping "High-Low": Escada and Club Monaco share space in Beverly Hills
Round1 Entertainment Expands with Spo-Cha Concept
Self-Storage: More Industry Consolidation Ahead
Self-Storage: Consolidation Driving Year-Over-Year Increases in Visits
Return to Office is Hot in Miami: Placer's New Return to Office Dashboard Launches
Restaurants: Bifurcation Here Too
Self-Storage: More Consolidation as Public Storage Acquires Simply Self Storage
Return to Office Insights: Miami and New York in the Lead
RFDC Takeaways: Lessons from CAVA and Other Restaurant Visit Share Winners
Pop-Ups Drive Excitement and Foretell Brand Demand
Restaurants: Where Do We Stand After Q1 2024
Restaurant Outlook 2024: Year of New Location Expansion Plans?
Reformation: Building an Apparel Destination
Pickleball and Padel: Saviors for Malls, but Threats to Tennis Courts?
Regional Grocery Update: Consumers Seeking Out Lower Prices
QSR Visit Trends: What Gives?
Performing Arts: Takeaways from the California Presenters Conference and Spotlight on Arizona Venues
Public Storage: Self-Storage Demand Resilient
QSR Chicken: Driving the Industry's Growth
Planet Fitness: Signs of a More Resilient Fitness Club Visitor?
Parks, Recreation Centers, and Redeveloped Malls: Community Glue
Outlet Malls: Ontario Mills Leads Black Friday, Arundel Mills Tops November Visitation
Olympics Boost: PR is Priceless
Olympic Inspiration: Is the Fitness Category Bringing Home the Gold?
Outlook for Holiday Thrifting: Inflation, Sustainability, and Gen Z Fuel Growth
Oklahoma, OK!: The Opening of Tulsa Premium Outlets Kickstarts Excitement
"Must-Have" Tenants for 2025: Top Brands to Elevate Your Outdoor Shopping Center
National Restaurant Association Show Takeaways: Who’s Winning the Food Fight?
Non-Traditional Anchors: Cheers or Jeers for Those Replacing Sears?
McDonald's: Where Do Whitespace Opportunities Exist?
Megamalls: All-Day Experiences, Entertainment, and Dining
Mercado Gonzalez: This Mexican Food Hall is a Magnet
Messi Mania hits Miami and LA
Luxury Outlet Malls: Seeing Strong Back-to-School Traffic and the Lure of Luxury
McDonald's: "Adult Happy Meal" Sets a High Bar for QSR Promotions